HelioClim-3 Similarity Forecast - Validation results

Last update: Jul. 2017

 

Validation results for the Global Horizontal Irradiation values and for different time steps (monthly, daily, hourly and 15 min data). To produce these results, the HelioClim-3 version 4 Solar Similarity Forecast data at D+1 have been compared to the BSRN stations (see illustration below).
NB: we adopted the validation protocol and the quality check procedure described on the SoDa website.

Figure 1: locations of the BSRN stations

Quality assessment results of GHI values

HelioClim-3 v4 Solar Similarity Forecast service -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
MONTHLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(kWh/m2)
Bias HC3v4
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Bias Forecast
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE HC3v4
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE Forecast
(kWh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
HC3v4
Correl. coeff.
Forecast
Toravere 50 86.9 -2.8 (-3.2%) -2.4 (-2.8%) 8.3 (9.6%) 11.1 (12.8%) 0.987 0.974
Cabauw 65 88.2 -3.1 (-3.5%) -3.7 (-4.2%) 7.3 (8.3%) 12.0 (13.6%) 0.994 0.980
Palaiseau 54 103.7 3.5 (3.4%) 2.6 (2.5%) 6.0 (5.8%) 11.9 (11.5%) 0.998 0.981
Payerne 29 107.8 -8.5 (-7.8%) -11.0 (-10.2%) 10.1 (9.4%) 16.2 (15.0%) 0.996 0.985
Carpentras 61 130.0 1.3 (1.0%) -0.4 (-0.3%) 3.8 (2.9%) 9.2 (7.1%) 0.999 0.990
Sede Boqer 44 166.9 -11.7 (-7.0%) -12.9 (-7.8%) 13.9 (8.3%) 14.2 (8.5%) 0.992 0.995
Tamanrasset 65 159.9 0.1 (0.1%) 0.2 (0.1%) 8.1 (5.1%) 10.6 (6.6%) 0.973 0.953
Brasilia 27 144.8 5.7 (4.0%) 8.5 (5.8%) 7.7 (5.3%) 12.6 (8.7%) 0.989 0.958
Sao Martinho da Serra 32 141.2 -1.9 (-1.3%) -3.5 (-2.5%) 4.2 (3.0%) 10.9 (7.8%) 0.997 0.978

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HelioClim-3 v4 Solar Similarity Forecast service -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
DAILY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m2)
Bias HC3v4
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Bias Forecast
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE HC3v4
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE Forecast
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
HC3v4
Correl. coeff.
Forecast
Toravere 1481 2795.3 -82.1 (-2.9%) -56.4 (-2.0%) 445.3 (15.9%) 1140.4 (40.8%) 0.978 0.843
Cabauw 1946 2940.1 -103.6 (-3.5%) -123.1 (-4.2%) 378.1 (12.9%) 1106.9 (37.6%) 0.987 0.868
Palaiseau 1639 3412.4 114.2 (3.3%) 101.1 (3.0%) 332.4 (9.7%) 1144.7 (33.5%) 0.991 0.867
Payerne 877 3558.8 -278.9 (-7.8%) -360.5 (-10.1%) 467.7 (13.1%) 1263.8 (35.5%) 0.987 0.862
Carpentras 1824 4359.2 43.5 (1.0%) -14.4 (-0.3%) 319.3 (7.3%) 1168.1 (26.8%) 0.992 0.881
Sede Boqer 1287 5647.8 -398.2 (-7.1%) -418.3 (-7.4%) 553.4 (9.8%) 741.6 (13.1%) 0.981 0.949
Tamanrasset 1723 5624.6 6.3 (0.1%) 25.3 (0.4%) 566.3 (10.1%) 902.5 (16.0%) 0.908 0.762
Brasilia 761 5073.7 194.7 (3.8%) 306.4 (6.0%) 583.5 (11.5%) 1046.0 (20.6%) 0.911 0.662
Sao Martinho da Serra 970 4721.2 -67.2 (-1.4%) -148.5 (-3.1%) 405.3 (8.6%) 1742.7 (36.9%) 0.986 0.672

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HelioClim-3 v4 Solar Similarity Forecast service -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
HOURLY SUM OF 15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m2)
Bias HC3v4
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Bias Forecast
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE HC3v4
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE Forecast
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
HC3v4
Correl. coeff.
Forecast
Toravere 18095 221.9 -6.0 (-2.7%) -3.3 (-1.5%) 60.3 (27.2%) 126.5 (57.0%) 0.958 0.800
Cabauw 22886 249.6 -9.0 (-3.6%) -10.8 (-4.3%) 56.7 (22.7%) 126.9 (50.8%) 0.968 0.821
Palaiseau 19680 285.1 9.3 (3.3%) 6.6 (2.3%) 51.4 (18.0%) 134.1 (47.1%) 0.978 0.830
Payerne 10167 306.7 -24.3 (-7.9%) -31.6 (-10.3%) 67.3 (22.0%) 144.3 (47.1%) 0.970 0.839
Carpentras 21959 362.3 3.5 (1.0%) -1.9 (-0.5%) 47.2 (13.0%) 133.7 (36.9%) 0.986 0.878
Sede Boqer 14417 505.6 -35.3 (-7.0%) -39.0 (-7.7%) 69.2 (13.7%) 98.0 (19.4%) 0.982 0.957
Tamanrasset 20996 479.2 0.7 (0.1%) 0.4 (0.1%) 71.7 (15.0%) 120.6 (25.2%) 0.974 0.926
Brasilia 9428 417.1 16.4 (3.9%) 24.2 (5.8%) 110.4 (26.5%) 154.2 (37.0%) 0.933 0.860
Sao Martinho da Serra 11567 396.3 -5.8 (-1.5%) -13.0 (-3.3%) 73.3 (18.5%) 190.6 (48.1%) 0.971 0.787

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HelioClim-3 v4 Solar Similarity Forecast service -- GHI Quality assessment results vs. the BSRN stations
15 MIN IRRADIATION
Station Number of values Mean
- BSRN -
(Wh/m2)
Bias HC3v4
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Bias Forecast
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE HC3v4
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
RMSE Forecast
(Wh/m2)
(relative in %
)
Correl. coeff.
HC3v4
Correl. coeff.
Forecast
Toravere 71550 61.6 -2.0 (-3.2%) -1.7 (-2.8%) 20.4 (33.2%) 36.0 (58.5%) 0.935 0.779
Cabauw 88643 64.7 -2.3 (-3.5%) -2.7 (-4.2%) 19.0 (29.4%) 35.3 (54.6%) 0.944 0.787
Palaiseau 76660 73.4 2.4 (3.3%) 1.8 (2.5%) 18.1 (24.7%) 37.5 (51.1%) 0.957 0.795
Payerne 39758 78.6 -6.2 (-7.8%) -8.0 (-10.2%) 21.3 (27.1%) 39.2 (49.9%) 0.951 0.814
Carpentras 84383 94.4 1.0 (1.0%) -0.4 (-0.4%) 15.6 (16.5%) 36.2 (38.3%) 0.975 0.856
Sede Boqer 56695 130.7 -9.2 (-7.0%) -10.1 (-7.7%) 20.7 (15.8%) 27.2 (20.8%) 0.970 0.943
Tamanrasset 80956 128.4 0.1 (0.1%) 0.1 (0.1%) 23.0 (17.9%) 34.8 (27.1%) 0.958 0.903
Brasilia 36273 110.2 4.6 (4.2%) 6.7 (6.0%) 37.1 (33.7%) 45.7 (41.5%) 0.881 0.807
Sao Martinho da Serra 44186 104.3 -1.4 (-1.4%) -3.2 (-3.1%) 24.7 (23.7%) 51.9 (49.8%) 0.949 0.749

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